- What exactly is inflation?
- What is a recession?
- How does stagflation tie in?
- How do we know we’re in a period of inflation?
- What’s causing such high inflation?
- Why does the Federal Reserve keep raising rates?
- What about deflation, hyperinflation, shrinkflation?
This story is part of Recession Help Desk, CNET’s coverage of how to make smart money moves in an uncertain economy.
On Wednesday the Federal Reserve raised rates again, marking the sixth rate hike of 2022. This move was in response to September’s inflation data, which reported an 8.2% increase in prices year over year.
With high prices continuing to threaten the economy, it’s possible that we’ll see another aggressive rate hike
when the Federal Reserve meets again in December, unless its latest move is able to slow stubborn inflation. In the meantime, that means Americans are dealing with rising prices and higher interest rates, making it harder to afford everyday essentials and more difficult and expensive to borrow money.
Here’s everything you need to know about rising prices, talks of a recession and where the economy might be headed.
What exactly is inflation?
Simply put, inflation is a sustained increase in consumer prices. It means a dollar bill doesn’t get you as much as it did before, whether you’re at the grocery store or a used car lot. Inflation is usually caused by either increased demand (such as COVID-wary consumers being finally ready to leave their homes and spend money) or supply-side factors like increases in production costs and supply chain constraints.
Inflation is a given over the long term, and it requires historical context to mean anything. For example, in 1985, the cost of a movie ticket was $3.55. Today, watching a film in the theater will easily cost you $13 for the ticket alone, never mind the popcorn, candy or soda. A $20 bill in 1985 would buy you almost four times what it buys today.
Typically, we see a 2% inflation rate from year to year. It’s when the rate rises above this percentage in a short period of time, like it has throughout 2022, inflation becomes a concern. As wages fail to keep up with skyrocketing prices for basic goods and more companies initiate layoffs, US households, particularly low-income Americans, are feeling severe financial strain on their wallets.
Right now, food and housing are the biggest drivers of our current high levels of inflation, though prices are up across the board.
What is a recession?
The slowdown in the US economy during the first quarter of 2022 has raised concerns of a recession. This refers to a period of prolonged economic decline and market contraction where the unemployment rate goes up and production goes down, generally slowing inflation.
Although the US economy has declined over two consecutive quarters in the past year — the technical definition of a recession — a recession has not officially been called yet.
Looking back at previous US recessions tells us that, during a period of recession, unemployment rates tend to go up and the prices of goods begin to drop. It’s generally harder to obtain financing during a recession, as banks tighten their requirements, to minimize their risk of lending to borrowers who may default on loans.
How does stagflation tie in?
Stagflation, on the other hand, refers to a period where a recession is uniquely coupled with high inflation. According to Bank of America’s fund manager survey in June, 83% of investors expect a period of stagflation within the next 12 months.
A mashup of “stagnation” and “inflation,” the term “stagflation” was coined in 1965, when British politician Iain Macleod lamented the country’s growing gap between productivity and earnings: “We now have the worst of both worlds — not just inflation on the one side or stagnation on the other, but both together. We have a sort of ‘stagflation’ situation and history in modern terms is indeed being made.”
Stagflation became more widely known during what was known as the Great Inflation in the US in the 1970s. As unemployment hit 9% in 1975, inflation kept ratcheting upward and reached more than 14% by 1980. Memories of this dismal economic period have factored into current fears about out-of-control inflation.
Economic circumstances today have some parallels to the 1970s, but also major differences. During the energy crises then and today, a disruption in the supply chain helped fuel inflation, followed by a period of relatively low interest rates, in an attempt to expand the supply of money in the economy. Unlike the 1970s, though, both the dollar and the balance sheets of major financial institutions are strong. The official US unemployment rate remains relatively low, currently sitting at 3.7%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (PDF).
How do we know we’re in a period of inflation?
Inflation isn’t a physical phenomenon we can observe. It’s an idea that’s backed by a consensus of experts who rely on market indexes and research.
One of the most closely watched gauges of US inflation is the Consumer Price Index, which is produced by the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics and based on the diaries of urban shoppers. The CPI reports track data on 80,000 products, including food, education, energy, medical care and fuel.
The BLS also puts together a Producer Price Index, which tracks inflation more from the perspective of the producers of consumer goods. The PPI measures changes in seller prices reported by industries like manufacturing, agriculture, construction, natural gas and electricity.
And there’s also the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, prepared by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, which tends to be a broader measure, because it includes all goods and services consumed, whether they’re bought by consumers, employers or federal programs on consumers’ behalf.
The current inflationary period generally started when the Labor Department announced that the CPI increased by 5% in May 2021, following an increase of 5% in April 2021 — a rise that caused a stir among market watchers.
Though a rise in the CPI in and of itself doesn’t mean we’re necessarily in a cycle of inflation, a persistent rise is a troubling sign.
What’s causing such high inflation?
Today’s inflation was originally categorized as “transitory” — thought to be temporary while economies bounced back from COVID-19. US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and economists pointed to an unbalanced supply-and-demand scale as the cause for transitory inflation, provoked when supply-chain disruptions converged with high consumer demand. All of this had the effect of increasing prices.
But as months progressed, inflation started seeping into portions of the economy originally undisturbed by the pandemic, and production bottlenecks persisted. The US was then hammered by shocks to the economy, including subsequent COVID variants, lockdowns in China and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, all leading to a choked supply chain and soaring energy and food prices.
Why does the Federal Reserve keep raising rates?
Created in 1913, the Fed is the control center for the US banking system and handles the country’s monetary policy. It’s made up of 12 regional Federal Reserve banks and 24 branches and is run by a board of governors, all of whom are voting members of the Federal Open Market Committee, which is the Fed’s monetary policymaking body.
While the BLS reports on inflation, the Fed moderates inflation and employment rates by managing the supply of money and setting interest rates. Part of its mission is to keep average inflation at a steady 2% rate. It’s a balancing act, and the main lever it can pull is to adjust interest rates. In general, when interest rates are low, the economy and inflation grow. And when interest rates are high, the economy and inflation slow.
The federal funds rate is the interest rate banks charge each other for borrowing and lending. When the Fed raises this rate, banks pass on this rate hike to consumers, driving up the overall cost of borrowing in the US. Consequently, this often drives consumers, investors and businesses to pause their investments, rebalancing the supply-and-demand scales disrupted by the pandemic.
Raising interest rates makes it more expensive for businesses and consumers to take out loans, meaning buying a car or a home will get more expensive. Moreover, securities and cryptocurrency markets could also be negatively affected by this: As interest rates increase, liquidity in both markets goes down, causing the markets to dip.
With rates well over the 2% inflation goal, the Fed reacted by raising rates a quarter percentage point in March, a half point in May and three quarter points in June, July and September. It’s expected that the Fed will hike rates at least once more before the year end, according to the central bank’s estimates in July.
What about deflation, hyperinflation, shrinkflation?
There are a few other “flations” worth knowing about. Let’s brush up on them.
As the name implies, deflation is the opposite of inflation. Economic deflation is when the cost of living goes down. (We saw this, for example, during parts of 2020.) Widespread deflation can have a devastating impact on an economy. Throughout US history, deflation tends to accompany economic crises. Deflation can portend an oncoming recession as consumers tend to halt buying in hopes that prices will continue to fall, thus creating a drop in demand. Eventually, this leads to consumers spending even less, lower wages and higher unemployment rates.
This economic cycle is similar to inflation in that it involves an increase in the cost of living. However, unlike inflation, hyperinflation takes place rapidly and is out of control. Many economists define hyperinflation as the increase in prices by 1,000% per year. Hyperinflation is uncommon in developed countries like the US. But remember Venezuela’s economic collapse in 2018? That was due in part to the country’s inflation rate hitting more than 1,000,000%.
Tangentially related to inflation, shrinkflation refers to the practice of companies decreasing the size of their products while keeping the same prices. The effect is identical to inflation — your dollar has less spending power — and becomes a double whammy when your dollar is already weaker. Granola bars, drink bottles and rolls of toilet paper have all been caught shrinking in recent months.